A Probabilistic Analysis of the Factors Affecting Returns for Clients and ESCOs in Schools Energy Retrofit Projects
Pamela Fennell, UCL Energy Institute
Although an extensive body of literature exists discussing the market conditions under which Energy Performance Contracting (EnPC) is likely to be successful around the world, relatively little has been published exploring the characteristics of successful projects.
This study explores a method for analysing EnPC projects in the UK Schools sector and finds that although limited by a small sample size, the probabilistic approach proposed identifies a wider range of projects that are likely to be successful than would be suggested by a deterministic risk screening approach. In particular, smaller projects may be rejected despite having a high probability of a successful outcome for both client and Energy Services Company. Recommendations for improvements to the method are proposed.